Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
